Why the Car Ride is more deadly than the COVID-19 vaccine using VAERS dataset

If you have friends or family that are skeptical about the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine and are deciding about the safety of it. Then this post should help put things into perspective. In this post I will show you how the car ride to the clinic is 30 times more dangerous than getting the COVID-19 vaccine in the US.  

Recently I was sent a video explaining how the COVID-19 vaccine is a harm to society, and masks are pointless. Due to the numerous logical fallacies in said video and clear manipulation of the data. I was spurred to make this post and breakdown in simple and understandable terms what the actual data says.

Then compare that to what I think is a more dangerous activity such as driving a car. A comparison like this helps us see the big picture and put things into relative terms.

Vaccine data as of March 6th 2021

In my recent blog post, I explained how to pull the data related to deaths recorded after the individual had their vaccine. Since March 6th 2021, the number of deaths recorded after an individual reported an adverse event from receiving the COVID-19 vaccine was 1020 deaths.

Out of 87 million doses there were 14,400 adverse events reported with a probability the vaccine results in a recorded event of 0.0164%. From the 87 millions doses the death probability comes out to 0.0012% of doses resulted in deaths.

But it is hard to say the vaccine is the cause of death. The data in VAERS is self reported, and deaths can be from other causes even after receiving the vaccine. In addition, it’s hard to say the reporting is highly accurate. Some people might not report an adverse event. These two points will cancel each other out but we can assume the numbers are upper bound. Since misreporting would be a larger number, than the misrepresentation.

Vaccine data as of April 1st 2021

The numbers from above are almost 1 month old. To make the best representation possible I will  repeat the same process to get updated numbers.

From April 1st 2021, with 153 millions doses administered the death probability comes out to 0.0011% of doses resulting in a reported death. Interestingly, the number of reported incidents has increased more than the number of doses. What I mean is the probability of a dose resulting in a recorded adverse event is 0.0221% as of April 1st 2021

This tells us that more people are reporting adverse events but the deaths after a reported event are the same. Comparing the 0.0164% from March to the 0.0221% from April. This would imply more people are reporting and the death probability is the same.

Probability of dying in a car accident

Lucky this information is quite easy to find using the internet, because insurance companies care about metrics such as how often do drivers get in car accidents, and deaths are reported accurately. The trust of this data is high since insurance companies rely on it for maintaining their margins. Thus there is a monetary incentive to have accurate numbers. 

In order to calculate the probability we first need to know what are the chances you get into a car accident. Because without a car accident, you are not dying from a car accident.

According to a report by CarInsurance.com, an average person will report a claim for an accident once every 17.9 years. This means each year the average person will have a 5.59% chance to get into an accident each year. Then looking at the number of total accidents and total deaths in 2018 from Crash Data Acquisition Network (CDAN). The chances you die from a car accident are about 0.54%. Taking these two probabilities together we get 0.03033% chance of death each year from driving here in the US.


0.03033% chance of death each year from driving given you get into an accident. 

0.0011% of doses resulted in a reported death. 

Comparing these we can see that getting your vaccine once is quite safe compared to everyday driving. The reason these are comparable is that getting the vaccine is only a two time thing. That is, most individuals will only need to get the vaccine twice per year then they are done. Yet, everyone will still need to drive after a 1 year period. 

To wrap up the driving you do in a year is on average 30 times higher to result in a death than getting the COVID-19 vaccine.

All the information is publicly available and here is the link (https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10qwulZljha07aD7tfa5a5_H2orjRlh2DEw9OkXBfQEE/edit?usp=sharing) to my Google sheet with the relevant data and analysis. If you have any feedback please share 🙂

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